By Scott Gaertner, Associate Broker
With the 2024 Presidential election just around the corner, it’s no surprise that uncertainty is in the air. Questions like “Should I wait to buy or sell until after the campaign season?” are natural, especially given how divided this political race feels. In Scottsdale North, where we’re likely just as politically split as the rest of the country, it might seem like real estate decisions should be put on pause. Before pressing the brakes, let’s review the data on how past cycles affected the housing market. The data tells a clear story: these political cycles rarely have a lasting impact on real estate.
Home Sales: A Temporary Dip, Followed by a Strong Recovery
One of the most common fears during campaign season is that home sales will tank. While it’s true that sales tend to slow down in the months leading up to a presidential election, this effect is both minor and temporary.
In the chart, you’ll see that while there’s typically a small drop in home sales from October to November, this slowdown is short-lived. In fact, after nine of the last 11 presidential elections, home sales rebounded the following year, even surpassing previous levels. This trend has been consistent since the early 1990s. So, while some buyers and sellers may wait on the sidelines before the election, the market tends to make a full recovery—and then some—once the results are in.
Home Prices: Steady as Ever
Another concern you might have is whether home prices will drop during the election. The data suggests otherwise. Historical trends show that home prices generally continue upward, regardless of political outcomes.
This chart shows that after seven of the last eight elections, home prices increased in the year following the presidential election. The only exception? The 2008 financial crisis had far more to do with the housing bubble than with politics. Since then, home prices have risen after nearly every election cycle. So, if you’re waiting for prices to drop due to political uncertainty, you might be waiting for something that just doesn’t happen. Here in Scottsdale North, where demand is consistently high, this trend is even more pronounced.
Mortgage Rates: Easing, Not Spiking
Finally, let’s address mortgage rates, a key factor for buyers. Historically, mortgage rates tend to decrease, not increase, in the months surrounding a presidential election.
This chart reveals that in eight of the last 11 election years, mortgage rates actually decreased from July to November, and we’re already seeing that trend start to unfold this year. Experts forecast that rates will continue to ease slightly through the rest of 2024, which could be a big win for buyers looking to lock in a lower rate before making a purchase.
What Does This Mean for Scottsdale North?
All the data points to one conclusion: while political seasons stir up emotions, their impact on the housing market is minimal, especially in high-demand areas like Scottsdale North. Sure, we might see a brief slowdown in sales as some people wait to see the race results, but home prices are expected to stay steady, and mortgage rates might even improve. And once the election season is over, we can expect the market to return to its usual pace.
Bottom Line
Don’t let the political season halt your plans. Whether you’re buying or selling, the market will keep moving forward, and so should you. If you want to discuss your options or better understand how this election might impact your unique situation, let’s connect. I’m here to help you navigate the rest of 2024 and beyond.
